More than Just Mutual Funds: A Peek Inside your 401(k)

There is no such thing as a simple choice.  We may be very familiar with the options available and we may know a large amount of details about those choices.  But when faced with making the decision, we often freeze, unable to decide and even questioning the whole process.

Just get behind someone at a fast food drive-up window and wonder how long does it take to order from a menu that rarely changes. Your 401(k), the defined contribution plan that many of us have, puts us in the retirement planning drive-up lane and forces us to make a choice.

Few people ever decide to drive on through without making a selection.  Once in the line, you are sandwiched in by the person in front of you, the car behind you and the prohibitive curb. This is your 401(k). This is your 401(k) menu.  Order now, pick-up at the second window, pay at the first and be satisfied with your choice in large part because there is no going back, no changing your mind or adding something else on to the pick you have made (without exiting your vehicle, which defeats the whole purpose).

This is where almost every 401(k) plan in this great nation fails.  Once you have been put in the drive-up lane, you are stuck. You are essentially given a select number of choices, many of which are easy to determine how much they cost in part because your plan is now loaded with index funds, which basically resembles your dollar menu.  Cheap and (portfolio) filing without a lot of extras.

Then the seniors portion of the menu, also bland (and bond-like), suggests that you can get value from your invested money by making sure you get your dollar back - or at least in theory. The kids menu has gotten smaller over the years your plan has existed because there is fear that if this portion of the menu were too large, you might find the restaurant liable for (actively managed mutual funds) choices that were too expensive and fraught with risk.  They could throw in a toy but you would want proof that you could purchase this item without ever being dissatisfied.

So they offer you menu items that you wouldn't expect.  These are items that would be better suited at a sit-down establishment where the big spenders go - not because they want to spend more, they just want to think they are more sophisticated than the general population.  This is the ETF (Echange Traded Funds) choice.

And then we have the value meals.  This portion of the menu dominates the process and in effect, bogs most of the line down if there should be someone who is indecisive. These are your target date funds, a combination of mutual funds tucked under one banner which suggest that you can pick a year in which to retire and the item you choose will not only be worthwhile, but will also fulfill its promise.

Everyday, folks drive up to their 401(k) plan and are forced to make a choice.  Everyday, your 401(k) plan is scrutinized by regulators. Everyday, 300,000 advisers go out to the field and, well for lack of a better word, advise.  That's 300,000 different drive-up windows, sponsored by just as many employers for millions of employees.  A daunting task indeed.  Which is why you are dissatisfied with the choices: you think that there is a better drive-up window someplace else.

Of those 300,000 advisers, the vast majority of them, according to Fred Barstein, the president of 401k Exchange "half have one employer plan. Half of those have at least three plans. Fifteen thousand or so, or about 5%, have at least five plans. Then there's the 5,000 or so elite advisers, who have at least 10 plans, $30 million and at least three years experience."  Mr. Barstein, who is also columnist for the Employee Benefits Adviser site, suggests that the fees that these advisers charge have dropped significantly in the past several years, which is good for the participants but makes it doubly difficult to make a living doing this sort of work.

Not only is the competition stiff, the drive towards least expensive and lowest risk has sliced the revenue stream in half. You might think this would be good for you, the 401(k) plan participant. Turns out, it hasn't been as good as you thought it was.  In this particular scenario, these sorts of plans have become more generic, less customized and inelegant.

When an adviser approaches your employer, the sell goes something like this: You want almost zero liability, almost zero costs, and near zero effort on your part and I, the adviser, will do this by offering target date funds and perhaps a huge basket of index funds and, if we can figure out how to squeeze one in, an annuity.  None of these offers your employees any guarantees, the adviser might suggest ,except for the annuity, which illustrates a distribution of retirement income and unfortunately comes with a cost (a trade-off of sorts).

Is it any wonder why you sit at the drive-up menu for longer than you should?  All of the choices look the same. And then there is the problem of getting you to order the product best suited for you. Here is where they suggest a sort of buy one get one free (or the matching contribution). By the time you get to the drive-up window, you may been sitting in line, waiting your turn for almost a year.  Then to get the other half of the buy one, get one free offer, you may have to wait an additional period of time (a vesting period that can be more time than you planned on staying with the company to get).

Then there is the super-fast lane where you are essentially put on a bus, driven through without access to the window at all.  The driver, your employer in this example, orders what they believe is best suited for you - take it or leave it. In this situation, you will be dropped into a target date fund and told that you can opt out (go hungry) or stay in and believe that this menu choice is probably the best one for you because someone thought it might be.  That someone is the adviser.

Now Mr. Barstein does suggest that at its rawest, it is about selling. Selling a plan involves training, partnering and a constant source of information. Much like fast food drive-up windows, who might consider your health as a passing interest in order to get you to come back, increase their bottom line with a salad and offset fears that their choices are not the best ones available (doing it yourself will always be more satisfying but more time consuming as well), your 401(k) plan is designed to fill you up.

The adviser and the plan sponsor hope you drive off happy and satisfied.  As long as you drive off and don't sue them.

Keeping that Balance and Maintaining It: Asset Allocation

Dan Solin is right when he suggests that no one ever brags about their ability to achieve optimum asset allocation. Its not all that sexy and quite frankly, lacks the sexiness that doing something extreme often nets you.  Something like not using asset allocation.

Asset allocation is something of a mystery to most of us although no writer worth her/his mettle would bypass the opportunity to tell you it is one of the keys to investment success.  You will hear those who use index funds as a primary driver in their portfolios selling the notion that once you embrace this passive sort of investment, asset allocation becomes second nature. It certainly becomes easier.

To allocate assets is to take and spread risk across many different stocks and bonds.  The idea here is that no market performs in tandem.  Some corners will remain sluggish while others shoot for the moon.  Asset allocation keeps you in both but keeps you involved in a measured way.

Too much of any asset class usually means that asset is doing really well. This is where the tough part comes in.  If that asset is doing so well, you probably should begin selling some of it in favor of the assets in your portfolio that aren't doing so well. This sounds sort of counterintuitive and I'll explain why it shouldn't.  Even if afterwards, it still does.

Because we are talking mutual funds and not individual stocks, and we will for the sake of the argument, use index funds as an example.  A large cap index fund may be in favor with investors because investors are looking favorably upon the companies in the index. But you also hold an index of small-cap companies that seem to be lagging behind - at least as a comparison. To continue to send money to the ever-rising fund, you should take some of the profit off the table and transfer it to your other allocations, balancing your investments at the point you began.

But, you stammer, that fund could go higher. Why sell a winner? Because that is what you do to make money: sell winners.  But in order to keep your allocation in balance you shift those dollars to the other funds in your portfolio, buying shares in those funds when they are less expensive.

Should you consider using actively managed funds in this process? Depends on your age and whether you plan on focusing on the balance among the funds in your portfolio. If you have a fifteen year or longer time horizon until you estimate you will begin to tap your account for income, feel free to take your chances.

Index fund users will never stop stressing the importance of fees and the low cost index funds have. And this is important.  But fans of the actively traded mutual fund are also focused on fees and equate performance against this measure. But the comparisons are difficult and calling this type of investing successful depends on numerous variables. (From which benchmark is being used to how many funds are spread across how many asset classes, the variables can astound and compound.)

The importance lies in keeping that balance and maintaining it. The only risk you can add to your portfolio is not adjusting your allocations at lest once a year. We are in for a volatile decade, as unemployment strings out, debt continues to be an issue and the tax debates continue and that is not without some pressures in the stock and bond markets.  This balancing act wil take time and effort.  But the person who bothers will end up with more years of positive returns than someone who fails at this decidedly unsexy task.

The Old Mutual Fund vs ETF Argument or An Investment Stranger than Truth

Mark Twain once submitted an essay to a contest about the art of falsehood.  In it, he suggested that only children and fools tell the truth, citing what he thought of as an old proverb.  What really dismayed him wasn't the actual lie, he described that as: "as a Virtue, A Principle, is eternal; the Lie, as a recreation, a solace, a refuge in time of need, the fourth Grace, the tenth Muse, man's best and surest friend, is immortal, and cannot perish from the earth while this club remains" , it was instead the ability to deliver in a successful way. A noble art he called it. Which makes theETF lie all the more true.


What do we know about ETFs? We know they are low cost. But perhaps not as low cost as they might seem.  For the investor moving millions of shares, or even thousands, the costs are just as low for them as it is for the investor owning a single share.  They are basically index funds.  But they are also stocks.  And the lie that owning a single share is just as costly as owning a million or so is told so often, individual investors often become dismayed, even disillusioned by the security when they purchase or sell it.


ETFs are not meant to be a buy-and-hold investment. This is actually a truth designed to look like a lie. Folks who buy ETFs intend on selling them, sometimes at the close of the trading day only to buy them again at the beginning. You can do this when the quantities are huge.  But when they are small, you are left with some tough decisions.  Wait it out and hope that the big investors jump back in or sell on the movement?  Either way, you have bought and are left holding.


ETFs have made the market more democratic and safer. On the other hand, ETFs are responsible for the flash crash where the Dow dropped a 1000 points and regained 650 points. Perhaps not directly, but indirect selling in those ETFs and of those ETFs created more volatility than was needed. According to Chuck Jaffe at Marketwatch: "Many ETF investors set stop-loss orders — pre-scheduling a sale to protect profits if the share price drops to some pre-determined level — but that didn’t minimize their pain in the flash crash, as the market busted many of those orders, flying past the limits because there were no buyers at those prices." The truth was that just because you have something to sell, there will be buyers.  The lie: someone always wants what you have unless everyone is selling the same thing.


ETFs are not mutual funds. Except when they are. If it looks like a basket of stocks or bonds or whatever is popular and you can't afford to buy each and every company in the sector, you look to make a purchase as a group. That is a fund with a mutual benefit.  The fund goes down and everyone loses except when the smart ones get out first. And that is the peril with a fund acting like a stock and trading openly throughout the day.
Some folks just know more than you do and benefit from that. No, they are necessarily seers or prognosticators or even forecasters.  They are just intuitive and quick and you are at work and busy and about to lose more than you thought you could.


Markets are not scary, therefore ETFs aren't scary - its investors who are scary.  Investors often don't have time to be scared before they are scarred by their own inaction. ETFs create volatility because that is how they are designed. Suppose you knew that something big was about to happen in technology or pharmaceuticals. You being a smart investor wouldn't look for an individual stock; you would buy a basket. And soon as the news panned out, or didn't, out you would go.


ETFs in your 401(k) are a good idea. Perhaps one of the single biggest lies being told by retirement planners.  They tout the low-cost, the employee demand and anything else they think the poor guy or gal in HR or in the CFO's chair wants to hear.  But ETFs in a 401(k) drips commissions and fees to the plan sponsor and gives the employee the illusion of doing something they really aren't doing.


The ETF lie is true. Odysseus told numerous fictions to a wide variety of people, each crafted to the circumstance of the one receiving the falsehood. The Greeks may have given the liar his due, even their admiration of a lie well-told. But when it comes to your portfolio, when it comes to your circumstance and your willingness to hear what you need to hear, the ETF is crafty fiction indeed. Good for some who understand it. But for those who think they do, it is simply a deception.

This article originally appeared at Target2025.com and was written by Paul Petillo

Which Mutual Fund is Better?

The world of conservative investing that has developed over the last couple of years has done so with sound reasoning.  People who buy fixed income believe that in doing so they are protecting their investments in the safety of debt.  That debt, be it from Treasuries or corporate bond issues has seen prices rise while yields drop.  yet they continue to put money in what many are now seeing as the next bubble.  But many equity fund managers are now suggesting that this bull market in bonds is about to end as unemployment continues and economies around the world still struggle.  Are equity funds worried about the investor or the fees they are (or are not) generating?

David Pauly, writing in Bloomberg pointed out that "These managers are concerned about their fees: On a dollar- weighted basis, stock funds on average collect 76 cents in fees for each $100 invested compared with 61 cents at bond funds." Even as money flowing into bond funds increases, PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund company predicts that this bull market in bonds is poised for collapse. When is subject to debate.

We have near zero interest rates, the housing market continues to see price stagnation and there doesn't seem to be any concerted effort by the government to get back into the stimulus game.  Unfortunately, it is the stimulus provided by government that has allowed us to get this far, even if "this far" is still short of where we should be in this economic recovery.

Because investors still see the potential for yet another slide into recession, bond fund inflows have increased as a compared to their equity counterparts.  While these investors are doing so because the believe that bonds still are far less risky than stocks, they may simply be kidding themselves.  Risk, the much needed element in any portfolio seeking to grow, is not something bond investors necessarily believe they are taking when they channel their money into these investments.

That risk is the price.  Bonds are priced based on the willingness of investor to pay for safety and the more they believe this, the higher the price goes.  As the price goes up, the yield falls.

Should the economy double dip, this bet will be worth taking.  But if investors (even if they are prompted by their money managers to get back into the stock market - as Mr. Pauly suggests because of better fees charged by the equity funds they represent) decide at some point that the economy is improving, the sell-off will leave a lot of late-to-the-game investors holding losses they didn't think possible.

Mark Trumball, writing in the CSMonitor outlines this risk: "It's hard to predict when a shift will occur, but at some point, many investment strategists warn, Treasury bonds will become the worst-performing bonds of all. That's precisely because these bonds are considered to be among the safest investor havens during hard times. If a crisis mind-set eases, Treasuries have run up so far in price that they have the furthest to fall."  Should this shift occur suddenly, not only will individual investors be in trouble, but large pensions funds who have difficulty moving quickly, will also suffer.

Inflation also plays a role.  Bond investors will demand some compensation for the increase in inflation, something that has been so far, benign. Robust recoveries usually indicate an increase in inflationary pressures and there is no indication that this recovery could be described that way. Bond gurus also point out that if the bond bubble should burst, should inflation suddenly spike, the retreat away from bonds will not mirror that sudden retreat investors in equities often exhibit.

Vanguard points out that the safety in bonds is likely to be less dramatic in large part because as bond prices drop, yield will increase. And this will keep many investors with a choice: keep the bonds they have flocked to or sell them for the rising opportunities in the equity markets. But Vanguard's prediction that investors will simply freeze may not take into account the nature of investor behavior. They are in bonds because they were frightened of losing their hard-earned money.  But if they see a return to out-sized gains in the stock markets, they may just vote with their feet again.

Vanguard argues that in no matter what happens, bond investors will still do good. In a bad economic situation, the point to historic likelihoods by suggesting the investors who stayed in bonds saw a high relative return.  In a good one, they point out the higher nominal returns will occur. They point out that the rise in interest rates will affect the short-term bond more than the long-term.  Their analysts see a rise (over the next five years) in 2-year Treasuries from 0.81% to 5.28% (rates for longer termed bonds will rise less dramatically from 4.43% to 5.56% over the same five year period).

But this depends on numerous factors including a steady inflation rate, the continued purchase of US debt by foreign banks, predictable increases in the Feds fund rates, modest GDP increases and you. If you hold steady, these predictions will probably come to fruition.  But if things improve in the equity markets and you panic, the bond bubble will burst, albeit slowly, in spite of Vanguard's argument that you will still do okay if you had done nothing.

Paul Petillo is the managing editor of Target2025.com

Not Paying Attention to the Cost

“To live is to choose,” writes Kofi Annan adding that “to choose well, you must know who you are and what you stand for, where you want to go and why you want to get there”.  No, Mr. Annan wasn’t trying to offer suggestions on how to run a 401(k) plan for his employees or even what to do when faced with a plan that suggests you can be somewhere it has no intentions of taking you to in retirement. Yet we repeat this thought when we approach our retirement options: choice is good, regardless.

We all understand the importance of preparing for retirement and using the tools at our disposal in our 401(k) is often placing at our efforts at risk in the markets.  What we don’t understand is the cost of that risk.  More here.